I’ve declared for some time now that we are in the midst of a revolution and no one realizes it. That revolution is the death of books. Much like CDs replaced LP records in the early 80s, we will look back at this time and say that in the 2010s electronic books replaced paper books. Paper books will become the thing of collectors. It will take 20 years to realize this as the Kindle and the Apple iPad work their way into schools. Once we get one generation of children through the school system primarily reading text books on e-readers instead of paper, traditional books will die.
I was going to buy a Kindle at the beginning of the week but Amazon was conveniently "temporarily out of stock." I did not realize this meant that Amazon was releasing a new Kindle at only $139
Update: Did you know you can buy the Barnes & Noble NOOK ebook reader (WiFi + 3G)
I still have faith that good old-fashioned books will endure, even if it’s in reduced numbers. Nothing, not even a shiny new techno gadget, can ever replace the feel of a traditional book when I want to curl up and read.
Losing paper books is like losing a treasure map. Digital books are acquired deliberately. Paper books are found when cleaning out attics, closets and old briefcases. They are chosen by picking them up and flipping through them. How many times have you found a wonderful book by holding it in your hands that you would never have chosen based on the title, author and description listing?
We used to pick our albums by flipping through and looking at covers (ergo, the ipod’s “cover view”).
The Kindle feels remarkably like a paperback. Kindle users claim to read more than when they read on paper.
It is certainly a shift, though I suspect it will take a little longer than you suggest. Well it will unless the publishing industry gets it head out of its butt.
Right now you can’t transfer, sell or give away a book in digital form. This is the foundation of book clubs and the like. Not everybook is something you want on your shelf (even a virtual one) forever, but because of DRM, this is the world we currently live in. Maybe if they relax or remove the DRM, but until then there will be many holdouts.